If this format is all about skill, why can't I win consistently against worse players than me?

 Yo guys, it's Enndo again.

The past few seasons of the War League (the most competitive GOAT format championship) have shown a lot of upsets. A lot of unpredictable wins and losses. Superteams and Legends went down blaming luck and the “sacky” character of this format: “Format sucks, what do you expect?” Some others have theorized that the new gen has really become as good as the old. But I have my own theories.

It's true that a lot of players have gotten better over the years. It's also true that if two players play at the exact same level, only luck can decide their encounter. But looking at the replays, you can still see more misplays in the “new great players” games and crazy plays/bluffs made by the “legends.” There's still a difference in level. So what's the problem? The difference is not enough for it to matter more than luck in the current conditions.

The only reason you always see the same people in the top cut of tournaments is because there's skill involved in this game. Skill only comes down to playing a good deck, outplaying your opponent, and not outplaying yourself. This very simple theory took most top players very far until now. They chose the best deck of the format in terms of power and consistency and prayed to the GOAT format gods to give them good hands. The problem is that if your opponent is doing the same, to win you will need him to misplay somewhere. And if he refuses to do so, you will need to be able to provoke a misplay.

In chess, when a professional player plays an average player, he doesn't change his play pattern. He knows that at some point the dude will misplay (make an imprecision, as we say in chess). But it's a completely different story if he plays against a player that is just a bit worse than him — a candidate master, for example. In this case, he will start thinking: “Ok, I know my opponent will hold the draw if I just let him play as he wants. He is good, he won't misplay by himself. I need to choose a strategy that will increase the strategic or tactical complexity of the game and reveal his true level.” Chess masters know that you can't just expect the position to be sufficiently complex for you to outplay your opponent. You have to MAKE the position more complex.

You will immediately tell me: “But there's no draw in YGO, so the comparison doesn't hold!” And you would be missing the point. What I am saying is that when the position is sufficiently complex, the better player almost always wins — in both games. In chess, when the position is too simple, the worse player (who can still play “ok”) will hold the draw. In YGO, when the position is too simple, luck will be the deciding factor. Both players play the best deck, both players don't make misplays, it's impossible to force misplays --> it all comes down to luck.

So now that we've come to this conclusion, where does this leave us? How do you actually “up the complexity”? What does that even mean? It actually means two things. First, there need to be more actual cards and/or turns played. Second, there need to be more CRITICAL decisions to be made by your opponent. And they need to be harder.

It's very easy to figure that out. Just look at “good players'” games in WL and ask yourself: “When do they misplay?” You will notice the same thing as me:

1. When there are too many cards to think about and the calculation has become non-trivial
2. When they are under tremendous pressure and it's impossible to clearly calculate a way to stay alive no matter what

People are not dumb. If there's a logical way out, a clear best play that can be found in under two minutes, they will find it — even if they're just good. Complexity is what happens when the right play, the way out, would need countless discussions and back-and-forth arguments from multiple sides. That's the type of games top players should strive for to win against good players, to show the difference between them.

Now, before finishing this article, a couple of points. First off, yes I'm implying that Turbo and Warrior lead to too many non-skill matches — or just “minimal skill” matches. Top Players will need to cook something that is objectively as good as those two decks and, at the same time, much more complex more consistently (not just “sometimes it leads to complex games” — it needs to be all the time). Secondly, the deck would need to have “comeback potential no matter what.” If you want skill to be more important than luck, you need not to lose against bursts of luck from the good player. Deck can't fold to just one or two Trinity. Finally, you need to be aware of the control deck trap. Yes, this deck can lead to complex game states; yes, you can come back from almost anything. But you're not putting pressure. The fact of the matter is that even if cards are amassing on both sides, if there's no pressure, the opponent won't make misplays.

So I don't have all the answers to my own questions, but the problem is laid out. If some top players decide to give up on their deck edge over a lot of the bullshit you see running around (Earth Aggro, Zombie, regular GC, etc.), and choose instead to embrace a deck that has no edge over anything, isn't worse than anything either, but in return can reliably complexify the game state AND put tremendous pressure, I predict that they will start tracing a definite line again between themselves and the masses.

Advanced Goat format theory - Part 1 - All about missplays

Yo guys, it’s Enndo for another article. 

Today I’m gonna talk about misplays and how to avoid them. The truth is that most goat format matches are decided by misplays. You think you lost because of luck? Think again. You think you had a bad matchup? Think again. You think you outplayed your opponent with some fancy play or tech cards? No, he just misplayed.

This is not very glamorous, but the fact of the matter is that until a certain level, all you have to do to win is misplay less than your opponent. If possible, play perfectly. If not, at least make misplays that are harder to punish. But let’s go over the rules to follow to stop misplaying, from the most obvious to the most obscure:

1) Stop blaming luck when you lose:

No matter the level, a lot of people are guilty of this. The problem is that sometimes there’s some truth to it. You were actually sacked. But even if you were unlucky, it doesn’t mean you didn’t misplay. The truth is that being unlucky leads to stress at a fundamental level. You’re more likely to misplay when you’re demotivated, when you’re already tilted. Also, when you’re unlucky, the game becomes harder—and the harder the game, the more chances you have to misplay. You won’t misplay in easy positions where every road leads to a win. You will misplay when there’s only one way to not lose. So the unluckier you are, the more your skill will be tested. And that leads to our second rule.

2) Review analytically all your losses:

Especially if you’re not at that level yet. It’s even better if you can review your replays with a top player. At first you will think, “I couldn’t have done anything, he sacked me!” but if you’re being truthful, you will find at least one or two things that should have been done differently. The truth is, if you’re really serious about this game, you can write at least two pages for every replay. Every play can be questioned. You can, for example, think: “Ok, how should I have played not to lose this game? Let’s imagine I knew his hand.” Then ask yourself: “Knowing that playing this way would have worked, could I have figured this out without that information?” You should soon realize that the optimal way to play can almost always be deduced, even from very limited information. Look at top players’ games and you’ll realize that they do that all the time.

3) Be at the top of your form:

This one is obvious but rarely followed. People don’t take competitive goat format seriously enough. They play tired, they play right after work, they play sick, they play at 6am or at 1am, they play at work, they don’t exercise or eat well, etc. You wouldn’t treat your final high school exam like that. There is a clear correlation between IQ and form. It’s been shown that when and in what condition people take exams affects their results. YGO is a game of edges, so you might as well get these small edges on unserious players who will misplay at the end of a 2-hour game and blame it on luck. Before moving on, I want to emphasize that this is not negotiable. A lot of the time you will bend on this rule to make sure the match can be scheduled. You shouldn’t. Make sure it’s the opponent who bends to your schedule (a reasonable one, of course). The game has already started at the scheduling phase.

4) Take your time:

Really, this should probably be the first advice. If you know you’re prone to misplay, you should at least take 5 extra seconds on every play to make sure you’re not missing something, and 30 extra seconds on big moments. Don’t hesitate to communicate this with your opponent, tell him you’re going to need to take your time here. Of course, don’t use this time to ponder philosophical questions. Only use it to make sure your calculations are correct. A lot of players who misplay a lot would need to slowplay heavily to avoid them (like reading every item of a checklist before every difficult play), but this goes against the rules. A good technique is to play against friends and teammates at a very slow pace, trying to play perfectly, then gradually going faster. But if you can’t do it slowly, you won’t be able to do it fast.

5) Control your emotions:

Don’t tilt, don’t play tilted. This always leads to misplays. The moment you start feeling anger or any strong emotion, you’re already out of it. Look at the mental game of poker, they’ve perfected emotional control. We’re not playing for huge amount of money here, so this should be easier. Again, being at the top of your form matters here. Because the less you sleep the less emotional control you’ll have. It’s really all strong emotions that lead to misplays, negative and positive. Need to be as objective as possible. You can be happy or sad after the game. This is not the time for that.

6) Make a checklist:

A lot of players never forget Serpent just thanks to that. There aren’t that many power cards in the game, you can do the same to play around them. How many times does an average player lose to an out they forgot? “Ah! Of course I’m completely dead to Tribe here, why didn’t I think of that?” Like the slow play training method, this doesn’t have to be permanent. You can make a small checklist with your most glaring weaknesses and use it during training for some time. Once it becomes second nature, stop using it.

7) Play against better players:

This is especially important for players who play at locals or on ladder. You can only realize you’re misplaying if there’s someone good enough to punish you. For the same reason, when you’re testing new decks or ideas, you should always test against top players, because they will truly test the fundamentals of your deck and plays. Also, if you’re competitive, just playing against better players will naturally make you step up your game. Nobody likes to lose, and if you keep misplaying, you’ll never win. You’ll be forced to take a hard look in the mirror and go back to the fundamentals (or blame it all on luck and learn nothing).

8) Play an easier deck:

You’re probably a worse player than you think you are. Like I said before, a lot of goat format games are decided by misplays on both sides. If you’re playing a difficult deck and your opponent is playing an easy one, and you’re both at the same level, you’re bound to make more misplays than your opponent. Of course, the simpler the deck, the more you leave to chance. You need to find the right balance. Another thing to keep in mind is that you can play complex decks against opponents you know are worse than you. In that case, even if you make the game harder for yourself, you’re also making the gamestate more complex, and you can expect to make fewer (and smaller) mistakes than your opponent even if you're supposedly playing the "more difficult deck". For example, complex decks include Goat Control and Chaos Control. Against an average Turbo player, you’ll have more chances to outplay him thanks to comeback potential and range. But against a great Turbo player, you might be at a disadvantage because your decisions are harder while his are simpler. You’ll have more opportunities to misplay, even if the matchup itself is fine. Even if after reviewing the replay you're sure that if both player played perfectly this would have been 50-50.

9) Use prior knowledge in decision-making:

A lot of situations have already been debated among top players. For example: should you Dustshoot before Duo? Against Turbo? Against Warrior? Against RGT? Top players have already built heuristics and reached conclusions. Same thing for Deko vs Spy, or how to start your game in Warrior depending on your opening hand. These situations are complex, so it’s better to check what others have said about them. If you find yourself in a new, very complex situation (maybe because of a unique deck or a weird tech) you can test plays and track results. For example, as a Stein player, I tested which Stein target was best in each matchup. I found that Last Warrior was quite decent vs Earth Aggro. Not everything can be calculated in-game. Sometimes plays need to be tested.

10) The perfection theory:

This one is a bit out there and very hard to implement, but in theory it could take you to another level, even if you’re already a top player (By top player I just mean someone who top regularly). So what is this “perfection theory”? Well, It’s based on perfectionism. Different people have different personality traits, and you’ve probably seen a true perfectionist before, someone who can’t accept anything less than perfect.  Some women are like that. Always the perfect make-up, the perfect clothes, the perfect life. Not being perfect would not be an option. This would be a great trait for a competitive goat format player, because not misplaying is not about being smart, but about never letting go of perfection. This needs to be ingrained in your brain: you just cannot make errors, even small ones. So how do you become a perfectionist in YGO? Simple: be a perfectionist in your life. Be the guy who tries to be precise and disciplined in everything he does and doesn’t accept mediocrity. It sounds extreme, but it trains your brain. The habits needed to avoid misplays will start coming naturally, because you’re always aiming for precision in everything.